5 Graphs Show Just How Unusual This Year’s Wildfires Are
![California’s 2018 fire season started earlier and ramped up faster than previous years. Photo by Mike Lewelling/Yellowstone National Park/Flickr Forest wildfire](https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/styles/related/public/9573555526_19a8b1e877_z_1.jpg?itok=_1ZGFo3z)
This time of year always brings wildfires. But what’s unusual this fires season is where and how the blazes are burning—and it could be a warning sign of what’s to come.
Hotter-than-normal temperatures and drought [2] across much of northern Europe and North America in June [3] and July [4] have resulted in wildfires burning in what are typically wetter, cooler regions. England’s peatland [5] moors [6], Ireland [7], Sweden [8], Scandinavia and even areas north of the Arctic Circle [9] experienced significant fires over the past two months.
According to data displayed on Global Forest Watch Fires [10], Sweden [11], Finland and Latvia experienced more fires in 2018 than they have any other year since at least 2012, when the collection of such data began.
![](https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/gfw-fires-sweden.png)
Estonia [12] has already seen more than double the number of fires in 2018 than any other year since at least 2012.
![](https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/gfw-fires-estonia.png)
And this year’s fire season is on track to become the worst since at least 2012 in England [13], Germany, Denmark and Norway.
![](https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/gfw-fires-england.png)
This is also turning out to be an unusual year even in places where wildfires regularly occur. California [14] and Greece [15] both experienced a faster-than-usual start to their fire seasons. California’s Mendocino complex fire was recently declared to be the largest [16]ever recorded in the state. (Editors' note: As of November 12, 2018, the Camp Fire became most damaging fire in state history, with 29 deaths and over 6,700 structures destroyed so far.) July’s wildfire in Mati, Greece [17] caused 90 deaths.
![](https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/gfw-fires-california.png)
![](https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/gfw-fires-greece.png)
What’s Causing These Unusual Fires?
In more populated places, fire occurrence is closely linked with human activity, such as campfires and discarded cigarettes. But this year’s record-breaking heat waves and dry weather contributed by drying forests and creating drought conditions so pronounced they are visible from space [18]. These dry conditions allow fires to spread rapidly, creating large, out-of-control blazes like what we’re seeing right now in Montana [19] and California.
Are Today’s Fires a Sign of What’s to Come?
With a warming climate, some places will become wetter while others will become drier, and every degree of warming increases the probability of extreme events. Climate change is also predicted [20] to increase the likelihood of lightning-ignited wildfires.
Even in the short term, the trend of warming weather and unusual wildfires is likely to continue. Global weather cycles, such as the El Niño/La Niña climate oscillation, cause major temperature and precipitation anomalies around the world, and contribute to year-to-year variation in the number of wildfires worldwide. The last strong El Niño in 2015-16 led to the worst Indonesian wildfires in 20 years, and a record year for fire-driven tree cover loss across the Amazon region in 2016. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, El Niño has a 65 percent chance [21] of returning during September-December 2018, and a 70 percent chance during December 2018-March 2019.